Replacing Gerhart tough task for Stanford
NCAA Football Betting Lines
08/12/2010 -
STANFORD, Calif. (AP) -When it comes to replacing Toby Gerhart and his 28 touchdowns, 1,871 rushing yards and countless big plays, Stanford will have a hard time finding one person to fill the job.
Gerhart's running duties will likely be shared by Jeremy Stewart, Tyler Gaffney, Stepfan Taylor and a collection of young backs looking to follow in the footsteps of last year's Heisman Trophy runner-up.
Quarterback Andrew Luck will be counted on to carry an ever bigger load after his breakthrough first season as starter.
And even the defensive players know they will have a lot more responsibility without Gerhart there to rescue them like he did so often last season.
``We're definitely taking it to heart,'' nose tackle Sione Fua said. ``People have been saying our defense needs to get better to get Stanford to the next level. We're taking it to heart. We want to be a strength of this team. We want to win games 3-0 and the other team never scores. We want to shut everyone out and just be a strength this season.''
The defense was far from a strength last season when it allowed 31.4 points per game. The Cardinal scored at least 27 points in four of their five losses with an offense that was clearly good enough to win the Pac-10.
Stanford is shifting to a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Vic Fangio, who has spent the past 24 seasons coaching in the NFL, in hopes of improving the struggling unit.
That was one of the few negatives last year as the Cardinal completed their turnaround from the 1-11 team Jim Harbaugh took over following the 2006 season.
Harbaugh led the Cardinal to upsets of Southern California and rival California in his first season and fell one win shy of a bowl bid his second year before leading Stanford to its first bowl bid in eight years last season as the Cardinal finished 8-5.
Expectations are high again this year.
``It's a double-edged sword there,'' Harbaugh said. ``The main thing is we have to understand that because we went to a bowl and won eight games we're not entitled to go to a better bowl and win 10 games or 11 or 12. All those have to be earned. From the other side of the coin, the team has the knowledge and the evidence that it can be done and also has the blueprint for doing it.''
That blueprint will be to ride the strong right arm of Luck, who is considered one of the top pro prospects in all of college football after playing just one season at Stanford.
Luck, who sat out his freshman year as a redshirt, completed 56.3 percent of his passes for 2,575 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions despite missing the Sun Bowl loss to Oklahoma with a broken right index finger.
``We knew he was a great talent but he had never played in a football game,'' Harbaugh said. ``Andrew far exceeded our expectations of what a freshman quarterback would do. He worked extremely hard. Part of his ability is he's very blessed and very talented but he's also a tremendously hard worker. He may surprise us again and exceed expectations.''
That may be necessary this year now that Gerhart isn't around. Gerhart carried the team down the stretch, especially when he almost single-handedly beat Notre Dame by running for 205 yards and three touchdowns and then throwing a game-tying 18-yard TD pass to Ryan Whalen to help the Cardinal win it.
That was just one of many examples of Gerhart's brilliance last season, when he narrowly lost to Alabama's Mark Ingram in the closest Heisman Trophy vote ever.
Gerhart is off to the NFL and Stanford has few proven backs to replace him. Stewart is the most experienced of the runners, having rushed for 526 yards and three touchdowns his first three years at Stanford.
He played sparingly last year because of a high ankle sprain and stress fracture but entered fall camp this year as the starter for the Cardinal.
``We definitely have the talent around us to replace Toby,'' Stewart said. ``It's a great opportunity for me and the rest of the running backs. We love it. Toby helped put Stanford on the map and people are noticing us now. I'm excited about it.''
Stewart will be pressed by Taylor and Gaffney, who got limited playing time as freshmen. Taylor replaced Stewart as Gerhart's primary backup and finished with 303 yards and two touchdowns on 56 carries.
Freshmen Anthony Wilkerson, Ricky Seale and Usua Amanam also could be in the mix as Harbaugh may go to a running-back-by-committee plan after relying so heavily on Gerhart last year.
``Toby's production has to get replicated,'' Harbaugh said. ``Whether that's one back or two backs or three backs that produce that production, along with the quarterback contributing by throwing the ball, those yards have to be replicated. Maybe I'll be surprised and it will be one guy. But most likely it will be two or three.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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